| NOTAS: | The theme of TV on ADSL is fuelling both debates and technical and economic speculation, as had VOD in its day and, more recently, Web TV. To begin, several points should be noted:
The ambiguity of the term "high-speed" has led to a great deal of confusion. TV on ADSL experiments generally involve bitrates of between 2 and 4 Mbps. This means that, in France at least, no ADSL or cable broadband offer is currently capable of providing such an service.
With respect to content: is it a new distribution network, or a new platform? A distinction needs to be made between simultaneous broadcasting of channels over their classic broadcasting platforms (terrestrial, satellite and cable), in which case ADSL corresponds to the use of a new distribution network, and the creation of a new medium/network. Regarding this last point, the difficulties experienced by TV channels dedicated to the net call for a cautious approach, to say the least.
New offers for new sources of revenue? Other video service offerings - PPV (pay per view), VOD (video on demand) - have yet to prove themselves, even when broadcast over classic platforms (terrestrial, satellite and cable). PPV revenues have never accounted for more than a meagre percentage of TV channels' earnings. Revenues generated from VOD are lower still, even in the US. A majority of them are derived, according to a great many estimates, from "adult" programmes. Other video offers (notably video games) are still in the launch phase. What position to take with respect to pay-TV? These offers will need to position themselves with respect to the existing pay-TV market. In particular, they will have to present themselves either as competitors or complements to existing offers and, like existing offers, will be faced with a difficult situation.
Users and their terminals: PC or TV? It seems likely that consumers will be more willing to pay for the quality image supplied by the TV set, than for the one offered on PC. Nevertheless, we cannot ignore that Realnetworks' GoldOne offer currently boasts a (much) larger subscriber base than all ADSL video services combined. The growth of high-speed also benefits PCs.
Investment costs (including fixed and variable costs) - operating costs must be evaluated in relation to targeted revenues.
Toward an ensemble of niche markets? High-speed TV offers often appear conditioned by their environment: nature of competition, type of existing networks, launch or not of digital terrestrial TV. |
